Dry weather to affect production output  

There is a burning question mark on the impact of the dry weather, brought about by the El Nino phenomena on palm oil plantation companies palm oil trees output. Dry weather still continues to affect all households around South East Asia especially Malaysia and Indonesia. There is a consensus among plantation research analysts that expects production for palm oil to increase and effectively bidding farewell to the longest dry spell ever witnessed around South East Asia. Average sale prices (ASP) for crude palm oil will see a short term boost until production output recovers to normalized levels and inventories being restored.

UOB KayHian, a Singapore based brokerage firm, published a report on plantations with the report detailing analysis on expected production recovery for 2016. The dry spell caused a lagged impact to production output in 2nd quarter of 2016. As the dry spell ended, production witnessed a recovery. In the western and central parts of Kalimantan, rainfall is still happening regularly where conditions are viable for palm oil trees to bloom and less stress on the flowers.
Total production output accelerated marginally in 2016. Plantations firms have varied tree profiles. Younger age trees will see higher production recovery while older age trees will be severely affected by the dryness. Those with older trees will witness slower rally in output volume. The average sale price for Crude Palm Oil (CPO) creeped up slowly from 2nd quarter of 2016 onwards. In actual fact, palm oil prices started its uptrend.
One must note that zero export duty was imposed for the same quarter in year 2015, hence any price increments were not  felt in 2nd quarter of 2016. Only on Q2 for 2016 can one see the impact of higher palm prices. The new Indonesia's export duty rates kicked in for palm oil production since July 15 2015. This minimized any impact on financial results. The duty collected will be utilized for its ambitious biodiesel mandate, assisting plantation smallholder with replanting exercises and facilitating deeper research for new palm seed discovery.
Another side of the plantation equation is export figures. Palm prices have not rallied hard as usually happens during severe El Nino scenarios as there is a marked slowdown of palm oil exports to top consuming countries China and India. Prices for palm oil may see a boost which will draw down stockpiles. Should there be continued production cuts, prices will definitely be well supported. For the first time CPO output will actually witness a year on year negative growth due to the severe dry spell hitting main plantation countries Indonesia and Malaysia. These 2 countries combines produces almost 90% of the whole global output for palm oil and weather patterns have immense impact on the palm tree yield and oil extraction rates.
There is still a lot of uncertainty in the outlook for CPO production. Lagged impact may be felt in the coming months but production may recover fast. La Nina has been widely speculated to follow suit which has historically been a production output booster to palm oil output. Plantations firms are closely watching the weather forecasts and patterns in the coming months to better manage their production operations.
 
Most of the world's palm oil is currently being produced in Malaysia and Indonesia but now The Guardian news reports Brazil's ambition to become a palm oil commodity giant. Palm oils is used in toothpastes, soaps, and detergents and many packaged foods. There are some ethical questions around deforestation for palm oil profit, so we hope the companies involved are responsible for sustainable cultivation. The non-profit World Wildlife Fund (WWF) launched a new alliance in Singapore that aims to boost demand for sustainable palm. The vision of the Alliance is to make CSPO the norm to stop the haze as well as deforestation and habitat loss in the region. It aims to provide a platform for companies to come on a sustainable journey towards producing, trading and using certified sustainable palm oil. The Singapore Alliance for Sustainable Palm Oil is supported by five founding members, who together produce some of the most popular everyday brands used by Singaporeans. The five founding members are Unilever, Danone, Ayam Brand, IKEA and Wildlife Reserves Singapore.